Probabilistic alpha and beta: quantifying an uncertain edge

In finance, the performance of an asset is often quantified by alpha (the excess returns above a benchmark return) and beta (the volatility or risk of the asset relative to a benchmark). In this post, we develop time-varying, probabilistic versions of alpha and beta, and go through the process of using these new metrics to build a dynamic stocks/bonds portfolio to improve on the classic 60/40 portfolio.

Probabilistic programming in finance: a robust Sharpe ratio estimate

In this post, we will develop a time-varying, probabilistic extension of the Sharpe ratio as a widely used performance metric for financial assets. In particular, we devise a Bayesian regime-switching model to capture different market conditions and infer the full distribution the Sharpe ratio as it changes over time using the probabilistic programming framework bayesloop. We … Read more